XBox sales report - Where's the context?

Today's lesson: A dozen different outlets can report on the same story in a dozen different ways.



Case in point, the internet's reaction to this Reuter's piece and this Microsoft Press Release (through Yahoo/PR Newswire-FirstCall). As I see it, there were the following facts to be culled from these articles (in order of importance):

1. The Xbox has sold 9.4 million units worldwide (6.2M in North America, 2.2M in Europe, 1M in Asia)
   
   
2. Microsoft predicts sales between 14.5 and 16 million through next year
   
   
3. Xbox Live has 500,000 subscribers, which MS hopes to raise to one million in a year.
   
   
4. The attach rate for the Xbox (games/system) is 5.4:1.
   
   
5. "Home and Entertainment posted stronger than expected results in the fourth quarter, with 8% revenue growth over the prior year on higher than forecasted Xbox® console sales." (from the press release)

Nearly everything else in the article (except for Bach's statement about the effect of the price cuts on sales being small) is either previously known fact or immaterial spin put on by the MS company representative, but that's OK. The article does a good job of reporting these facts, even if Nintendo doesn't seem to enter into the equation for some reason.



Which leads to today's second lesson: Context is important



Below is a summary of how a few web sites handled these facts in their articles. Note especially the divergent headlines, and look out for a few rants by me on that second lesson.



GamerFeed - Xbox Sales Pass 9 Million

GamerFeed mainly focused on fact #1 above, looking strictly at the sales numbers, (including worldwide breakdown) and briefly mentioning the effect of the price cut. A good summary article, but still no mention of competing worldwide numbers by Nintendo and Sony...



Gamers.com - Microsoft Approaches 10 Million Xboxes Sold

So did they "pass 9 million" or "approach 10 million"? The difference is... hmmm... a million units! While MS could be said to technically have been approaching 10M units since day one (their first unit got them one closer!), I think the 10M number is misleading in this headline, especially when the actual sales numbers are closer to 9M than 10M.



Gamers.com mentioned MS's sales projections and Live numbers, and also briefly compared the Xbox's numbers to the PS2's (51.2 million worldwide) and the GameCube (9.4 million worldwide... a dead heat!). The Sony and Nintendo numbers are absolutely neccesary to provide context for this article! With no competing numbers to compare it too, the reader has no idea whether 9.4 million is high or low, impressive or depressing. Any article on this subject that does not at least mention similar numbers for Nintendo and Sony is found wanting in my book.



Spong - Bach: Price cut not the power behind upped Xbox sales



Leave it to Spong, the internet equivalent of a video game tabloid, to focus on a piece of spin instead of a fact for their headline. But Spong bests itself with blatant editorializing in the second paragraph of the article:



"Bach also mentioned that global sales of Xbox now stand at 9.4 million, a respectable count by anyone’s reckoning." (emphasis added)



A respectable count? Who are you to say what a respectable count is? Just report on the numbers for Sony and Microsoft (which Spong, of course, didn't do) and let the reader decide what's respectable. Leave your opinions to the editorial section, please! Moving on as quickly as possible...



EvilAvatar - Xbox #3 Worldwide?



An interesting spin on the story based on some number-crunching by the EA crew. First, the article focuses on the current sales numbers and projections, and goes to a Forbes copy of the Reuters article to give more details. Then, they do some digging to make the important headline revalation.



"According to Japanese site Quiter, the GameCube has sold 5.13 million in North America, 1.95 million in Europe & Australia, and 2.47 million in Japan - totaling 9.55 million GameCubes worldwide since launch. And of course Sony's PS2 is sitting at around 51.2 million worldwide since their launch."



The 9.55M mark that EA sets is only slightly different from the 9.4M number cited previously for Nintendo, but it's enough to break the worldwide dead heat for second place and push Microsoft down to third. I'd be interested to find out what caused the disparity in numbers between the various sources (although my best guess would be simple rounding error). Kudos to EA for 1) including Sony and Nintendo's numbers and 2) striving for accuracy where just being close would have sufficed.



TotalVideoGames - Xbox Sales Rise



Click on that link and look at that big table in the middle of the article. Forget that the headline is extremely unhelpful. Forget that they say the sales increase was "spurned on by the recent price productions" despite Bach's assertion that it wasn't really. In that table, TVG concisely answers the question on everybody's lips: What do these numbers mean? TVG breaks it down by territory and gives us totals to show exactly where MS's 9.4 million number came from and how it compares to their competitors' numbers. TVG even analyzes the numbers a bit:



"As you can see from the sales tables above, the difference between GameCube and Xbox sales is negligent at best, with Microsoft’ stronger performance in America and Europe all but wiped out by their non-existent support in Japan. Indeed this is an area that Microsoft will have to address and correct in time for the launch of Xbox2, particularly if they wish to continue attracting the crucial support of Japanese developers."



Now pay attention... this is an important distinction (Spong... I'm talking to you): What TVG did in that last line was analysis. They looked at the numbers and predicted what their effect might be in the future. This was not editorializing, which is giving a blanket opinion on how good or bad these numbers are based on no other facts. It's a fine line between the two, but I think most people knowthe difference.



GamesIndustry.biz - Microsoft results reveal new Xbox sales figures



Speaking of analysis, we'll finish off with what is quickly becoming my favorite site for business related industry news. Where most sites settled for a one or two paragraph summary of the Reuters article, GI.biz took some time and space to break the situation down for the reader. They start with the same facts -- 9.4M sold, 14.5-16M projected -- but also mention that these numbers are "far, far lower than some estimates recently." They cite one piece of research as predicting sales of 13 million by this point. While I would have liked them to name their source, the fact that they are at least taking a critical look at these numbers instead of jumping on the "9.4 million is a lot" bandwagon is comforting.



The article mentions the obligatory Bach quote, then gets into the analysis: Xbox is struggling outside North America ("A massive 6.2 million of its Xbox installed base - some 66 per cent, or two thirds - resides in North America") and PS2 is still beating the pants off of everyone ("Sony has no territory in which it is weak, while the Cube and the Xbox clearly only have one territory each in which they could be considered strong"). Again, it's all about the context. 9.4 million is just a number unless you compare it with other numbers and tell us why those numbers matter.



Reporting the numbers from a press release is all fine and good, but it should only be the starting point for good reporting and analysis. As journalists, you're supposed to add some value to the numbers by giving them context and reporting on their significance. Anything less, and you might as well be in public relations.